Could we have predicted the recent global economic crisis and can we in the future?

  • Recent research has investigated economic growth patterns and the possible cycles that occur during growth.
  • Theorists believe that recent events are the results of a two century growth wave since the approximate infancy of the capitalist system around 1900 to 2112. This wave is split into seasons that amount to 40 years each, during which periods of growth, saturation and decline occur marked by events such as war, oil crisis, tech booms and market failures.
  • This theory states that the cyclical slowdown occurs when the ratio between actual and estimated GDP is greatest. With this in mind the author believes that the worst of the current crisis is yet to hit, with a predicted impact in 2013, which allows for the 4 year deviation of past cyclical events.

This could align with mounting issues associated with the Euro Zone and the sovereign debt crisis – starting with Greece and developing into Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain (PIIGS). Such events may either detract public focus away from environmental issues or potentially galvanise business and society into creating new green markets that bring growth and social benefits.

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